My End-Of-Year Predictions for 2025
Because βPlaying It Safeβ Wonβt Cut It Next Year
Below is a concise list of my 2025 predictions (organized by categories) for everyone invested in the US stock market.
These calls are based on the same research methods that helped me grow myΒ Substack to 500k subscribers, thanks to myΒ highly accurate 2024 forecasts!
I am the guy who predicted the stock split and the NVIDIA boom in April 2024.
1. US Economy & Stock Market
Tariffs & Trade Disruptions
If the political landscape shifts, we could see aΒ renewed waveΒ of tariffs or trade tensions.
Companies with heavier overseas exposure may become more volatile, while domestic industrial playersΒ could benefit from this.
Debt & Interest Rates
Watch for Fed decisions if inflation decreases, possibly leading to renewed rate hikes (increasing market volatility).
Government debt concerns grow louder, but the US economy remains resilient unless inflation flares severely.
Sector Strength
Defense stocks and infrastructure companies stand to gain if national security and domestic manufacturing get a boost.
High-debt companies or highly leveraged growth plays might struggle with elevated borrowing costs.
Overall Market Trajectory
Expect a volatile but possibly upward-trending year if we avoid a recession. Quality fundamentals, low debt, and solid cash flow will be rewarded.
2. AI & Tech
AI Mini-Bubble Pops
Many AI startups face a shakeout after the 2024 hype. A few big winners (particularly infrastructure and pick-and-shovels providers) will thrive.
Investors should focus on enterprise-level AI or cloud/hardware vendors as they benefit from steady, recurring revenues.
Regulation & Compliance
Government pressure could force complianceβespecially regarding LLM usage and data privacy.
Big Tech might handle it; mid-tier companies could get swamped by costs.
Selective Use Cases
Specialized AI in healthcare, legal, or search will prove their worth. General-purpose chatbots may be perceived as commoditized and less impressive.
3. Geopolitics & Commodities
Russia-Ukraine
They are likely to settle in a frozen conflict or partial truce. Commodity markets (especially wheat, oil, and gas) remain highly sensitive to flare-ups.
China & Tensions
Expect sporadic trade disputes with the US. Potential tariffs could rattle supply chains again.
Companies nearshoring or onshoring manufacturing (e.g., in Mexico) see investment flows.
Global Refugee Crisis & Displacement
Climate and conflicts could intensify refugee flows, potentially shifting global priorities toward infrastructure and humanitarian spending.
4. Renewables & Energy
Solar & Wind
Solar energy especially keepsΒ accelerating, possibly hitting recordΒ gigawattΒ installations.
Battery storage tech expands; watch for companies bringing grid-scale solutions to market.
Energy Price Swings
Oil and gas prices spike if a significant geopolitical event occurs.Β However, if tensions cool, prices drop.
Green hydrogen or fuel cells might draw more attention, though still niche in 2025.
Investment Angle
Renewable energy stocks with solid fundamentals and strong project pipelines could see meaningful upside.
Traditional energy giants remain profitable but face uncertain policy pressures.
5. Crypto & Digital Assets
Bitcoin Cycles
BTC halving sparks optimism; the price could skyrocket mid-year, then a 70% correction like prior cycles.
Regulatory clarity in the US might open the door for Bitcoin spot ETFs; watch for that βapprovalβ moment.
Altcoins on the Sidelines
Non-BTC crypto (altcoins) remain mixedΒ with heavy speculation and risk. Look for real use cases, or tread lightly.
Institutional Interest
Big banks tiptoe in with tokenized securities, stablecoins, or pilot projects.
DeFi sees consolidation; only a few large players remain.
6. Consumer & Culture Trends
AI-Free Premiums
Consumers areΒ exhaustedΒ by AI-run everything, leading to premium branding on βhuman-createdβ or βno AI.β
Possible small but fast-growing niche in higher-end products/services.
Social Media ID Checks
Tighter restrictions on under-18 usage; class-action lawsuits against platforms that fail to protect kids.
Large platforms bear compliance costs; smaller platforms might fail or exit specific markets.
Retail & Spending
Inflation might tighten wallets, driving consumers to focus on necessities over luxuries.
Price-sensitive retail could thrive; high-end discretionary may wobble.
7. Healthcare & Biotech
Novel Diagnostics
Momentum builds around AI-assisted disease detection (e.g., breath analysis or fast blood screenings).
Startups in these areas might IPO or draw big M&A offers from established healthcare players.
Gene Editing Gains Ground
New CRISPR trials could show massive potential for rare diseases, spurring biotech stock pops.
Regulatory bottlenecks remain, but breakthroughs would trigger considerable Investor excitement.
8. Final Thoughts & Strategy
Watch Debt & Inflation: Monitor Fed policies. Rate hikesΒ or surprises could cause rapid market swings.
Focus on Fundamentals: Profitable companies with strong balance sheets can weather volatility.
Be wary of AI Startups.Β TheΒ hype cycleΒ is still in full swing, but a shakeout is looming. Stick to provenΒ infrastructureΒ orΒ enterpriseΒ winners.
Renewable Boom: Consider long-term positions in solar and storageβthese trends show real momentum.
My 2025 Outlook
Despite challenges, the US stock market remains robustβespecially if we avoid a deep recession.
With 500k subscribers to my newsletter (shout-out to all who joined after my spot-on 2024 calls), Iβm confident these insights can help you prepare for whatβs next. Hereβs to a profitable and eventful 2025!
(Reminder: This is not formal financial advice but my personal analysis.)
God Bless you. Happy Holidays and New Year!
Jack Roshi, MIT PhD
You nailed it last time, so these predictions had better not be ignored. Clean energy infrastructure stocks are showing the same kind of pre-rally technical setups we saw in AI stocks back in early 2024. Here's hoping!